Wet and Dreary; Sunshine returns midweek; FROST possible this weekend

Dreary and wet across the Hamilton region today as a storm system slowly moves up the eastern seaboard of the USA. There is plenty of tropical moisture with this. We will likely see 20-30mm of rain from this event across the region, however the majority of the rainfall will occur over eastern Ontario where rainfall warnings are currently in effect.

Easterly winds will be brisk gusting to 40 at times today and that will certainly put a bite in the air, so jackets are a must today.

The majority of the rain will fall across the regions Monday night and into Tuesday. There could be some embedded thunderstorms and this would increase the rainfall totals on a very local scale.

Environment Canada has issued this special weather statemend regarding the rainfall across Southern Ontario.....

Significant soaking rainfall on the way...

A large and juicy low pressure system laden with tropical moisture
Is moving north towards the lower Great Lakes from the Southeastern
United States. This disturbance will bring a large shield of rain
across all of southern and Eastern Ontario tonight and Tuesday as
The low pressure system moves through.

Current trends continue to suggest that the heaviest rainfall will
occur over Eastern Ontario where rainfall warnings are in effect.

However across the rest of the forecast district a general rainfall
of 15 to 30 millimetres is likely tonight and Tuesday.  Locally
higher amounts of 30 to 50 mm are possible in a few locales that
receive an isolated thunderstorm or heavier rain band or two.

Environment Canada is closely monitoring this situation. Rainfall
warnings may be expanded into parts of Southern Ontario as needed.



Surface Map from Monday Afternoon

 Sunshine should return for Wednesday and Thursday with a nice reprive to the upper teens or even 20° by Thrusday. This will be short lived as another cool shot will dive southwards and bring some of the coolest weather so far this season for the first weekend of October. There is the possibility of seeing some Frost this weekend, especially for areas away form the lower lakes.

Taking a look at the tropics....

In other weather news....

It's that time of year when Snow becomes more widespread, but generally its confined to the northern portions of the country in the Yukon, NWT and Nunavut. Whitehorse recieved it's first snowfall of the season just the other day getting upwards of 13cm of the whitestuff. Showen hear is the Whitehorse Airport with snow covering the tarmack. There has already been some snow in Alberta and Saskatchewan which is not all that uncommon for September, but it won't be long before snow flies across the entire country.

New Record High's Sept 24

Weather summary for all of Southern Ontario and the National Capital
Region issued by Environment Canada Toronto at
8:30 AM EDT Saturday 25 September 2010.

..Records tumble as early autumn heat graces Southern Ontario..
-------------------------------------------------------------
==weather event discussion==

An intense low pressure area which gave heavy rainfall to Northern
Ontario provided a reminder of our summer heat in Southern Ontario.
Numerous high temperature records fell across the region on Friday
with the mercury soaring into the high twenties and low thirties
accompanied by howling, hot winds. It's a one-day wonder, however,
As a cold front swept the heat into the record books last night,
making way for a rather cool weekend.

Below is a list of the temperature records broken on Friday. Since
the last update, Buttonville's maximum temperature was adjusted
upwards, and London and Vineland were added with tied values.

-------------------------------------------------------------
Date
Location                    new record      old record

Toronto city                30.1            28.3 (1920)
Toronto Pearson airport     30.8            27.2 (1970)
Markham (Buttonville)       31.0            27.2 (2004,2007)
Hamilton                    29.8            29.4 (1970)
Delhi                       30.0            29.4 (1970)
Barrie                      28.2            28.0 (2007)
Orillia                     30.0            27.8 (1916)
Peterborough                28.7            27.8 (1970)
Muskoka                     28.6            26.7 (1970)
Bancroft                    27.7            26.3 (2004)
Ottawa                      28.5            26.9 (2004,2007)
London                      28.3 (tied)     28.3 (1970)
Vineland                    30.6 (tied)     30.6 (1970)

Temps pushing 30°C today; Very Windy

Amazing temperatures for the 24th of September. Pushing 30° for the region today, but winds will be really strong gusting to 80km/h at times in the afternoon. This is all thanks to a strong Colorado Low storm that is moving through northern Ontario. This has put Soutnern Ontario into the warm sector allowing the heat to move up from the Southern States. Humidex values will also be into the mid 30's today, but it won't feel like it with the winds.

Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement for today:

..Very windy and unseasonably warm today over Southern Ontario..

A strong southwesterly flow of very warm air flooding into Southern

Ontario will push out all the showers and cloud over the extreme

eastern regions near noon with temperatures rising to the mid to

upper twenties. Meanwhile, further to the west where winds will be

stronger, record breaking temperatures are expected. Day time highs

will get up into the upper twenties and touch the 30 degree mark in

some regions. Strong southwesterly winds of 50 gusting to 80 km/h

are expected over much of the western sections this afternoon.

Environment Canada will continue to monitor the developing wind

conditions closely and could issue strong wind warnings if necessary.

Unfortunately, the warm temperatures are not going to last.

A vigorous cold front over Michigan at this time will sweep in from

the west and move through Southern Ontario later this afternoon and

evening. Day time highs on Saturday are expected to drop back down

to the mid teens which are near or below the seasonal normals.

Temeratures over the next while are beginning to drop. Cool for the coming weekend with only mid teens expected, but then the really cool air begins to move into the region by the end of next week. Current indications are for only the low double digits by the beginning of October.

The Tropics are still active with Lisa and newly formed Matthew. The season is far from being over and the tropical strom train is expected to continue to be very active.

Special Weather Statement re:Rainfall

..Southern Ontario to get a good dousing on Thursday..




A developing disturbance over Iowa is targeting the Great Lakes
Basin with a fairly significant rainfall. The first of the rain will
arrive in regions neighbouring Lake Huron into the southwest in the
overnight hours. As the low pressure centre tracks acros
Southwestern Ontario during the day Thursday..The rain will envelop
most areas from west to east across the lower Great Lakes. A few
embedded thunderstorms will also enhance rainfall amounts in a few
Localities...Mainly in the southwest. Total rainfall amounts of 15
To 25 millimetres are expected with local higher amounts closer to
40 in locales which receive prolonged heavier rain bands or a
thunderstorm or two.

Rainfall warning criteria is 50 millimetres within 24 hours.
Warnings are not anticipated at this time, but Environment Canada
will monitor the development of the disturbance should heavier
rainfall threaten the region.

Seasonal today, rain move in for Tomorrow

Today's Forecast for Hamilton:

Clouds mixing with sunshine. Light winds.

High 19°C

Skies were supposed to be sunny today, however a good cloud cover is preventing any sunshine from getting through. The day started out sunny, but clouded over late in the morning. It was a very cool early morning with 6.8°C reported in Hamilton. Winds are fairly light today, but things will soon change.

Clouds will likely move out of the region later in the afternoon and early in the evening. 19°C can generally be expected across the area.

Here's a look at reported temperatures across the region yesterday:

 Toronto............. 21°   10­°
Hamilton........... 20°    8°
London............. 19°    9°
St. Catharines... 20°    10°
Kitchener.........  19°    7°
Muskoka..........  17°    6°    


An area of rain approaching from the west will move into the regions overnight and into tormorrow morning. There is the chance of some thunderstorm activity as well, especially around the western end of lake Ontario and eastern shores of Lake Erie. Cool easterly winds will also be gusting up to 50km/h at times tomorrow making for a really dreary and wet day.

Warmer air is expected to move in for the weekend. When I say warmer, im just talking about low 20's, which is normal for this time of year.

Long range trends are seeing generally seasonal conditions through early next week, then very cool temperatrures begin to move into the area by next weekend. That is very far off and things could change, however that is what the computer models are currently seeing.

Tropics remain very active. Hurricane IGOR was just 1mph shy of Cat 5 status at 155mph sustained winds last night. It has since decreased to 135mph, but these fluctuations are normal with strong hurricanes as they undergo eyewall replacements cycles.
Hurricane Julia underwent some rapid intensification last night and is now a Category 4 Hurricane with winds sustatined at 135mph. This makes it the second time in history since record keeping began that there were 2 Category 4 storms simutaneously in the Atlantic Basin. Julia also set a record being the furtherst east Category 4 storm.

Cooler air returns today with rain moving in for Thursday.

Today's Forecast for Hamilton:

Variable skies with winds 20km/h at times with gusts to 40.
19°C

A cold front passed through the regions yesterday and that has dropped the temperature to slightly below seasonal values for today. Variable skies can be expected through the afternoon along with winds gusting to 40km/h at times. Today, expect a high of 19°C. Skies will be generally clear in the overnight period and winds will diminish and this will allow temperatures to drop to the mid single digits across the region. Likely to be the coldest night so far this season for centres away from the shores of the Great Lakes.

Sunshine will continue on Wednesday, however clouds will begin to increase through the afternoon hours as a system approaches bringing some much needed rain to the region on Thursday. Temperatures will be very cool on Thursday likely not surpassing the 15°C mark along with brisk easterly winds.

It's shaping up to be a cool weekend ahead as well with temperatrures into the mid-teens. There is the possibility of temperatures increasing to above normal values by the middle of next week as Southern Ontario will sit on the northern edge of some heat moving up from the United States. However any slight movement to the south and this would keep the cool temperatures over the region.

Taking a look at yesterdays temperatures across the region.

Toronto.......24     13
Hamilton.....24     11
London.......23     10
St. Kitts.......23     13
Kitchener....22       9
Muskoka.....21       9

Lots going on in the Tropics today with 3 named storms. Newly formed Tropical Strom Karl, Hurricane Igor and Hurricane Julia.

A nice "fall like" day for Southern Ontario

Well the day started out kind of gloomy with grey skies and some drizzle in the morning, but the sun soon started to make an appearance across the Golden Horseshoe by the afternoon. Winds were light today and the temperatures managed to make it to the 20°C mark by the afternoon. All in all.. it turned out to be a gorgeous "Fall Like" day around the area.

A cold front will slice through the regions on Monday and will likely bring some shower or even a few thudnerstorms to the Golden Horseshoe area. Temperatures behind the front are considerably cooler and this will set the stage for a prolonged period of below normal temperatures for the region. Mid teens will be the rule from Tuesday onwards into next week.

Here's a look at the temperatures across the region for Sunday:

Toronto		Hamilton
22°	14°	20°	12°
London		St. Catharines
21°	13°	21°	13°
Extremes Across Ontario 23°C 6°C Windsor Thunder Bay

Hurricane IGOR at Cat 4 status

Lots of activity going on in the Tropics with Hurricane IGOR a strong Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 140mph. IGOR is far out to sea and doesn't pose a threat to any land in the near future. IGOR is expected to remain a strong Category 4 storm and may even reach Cat 5 status for some time over the next few days.

Right on it's tail is Tropical Depression 12, which is expected to become Tropical Storm Julia very shortly. Very warm water ahead of the depression will aid in it's rapid development.

There is another area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean that needs to be watched as very warm water and light wind shear will all aid for development this week. We are now at the peak of Hurricane Season with 2 1/2 months still to go. The way things are going, I think we will see quite a few more storms in the coming weeks.

IGOR is the fourth named Hurricane of this years season and is set to be the first Cat 5 storm.

Monsoon rains have produced some of the worst flooding in decades across northern India, including fears of major, catastrophic flooding in the nation's capital of New Delhi.

Check out the story here...

Severe Flooding in India

Cool, windy and showery

Summer one day, Fall the next. What a difference a day can make. A strong cold front crossed the region yesterday evening and that erased the warmth and humidity and replaced it with cool and windy Autumn like conditions. Clouds mixed with some sunshine across the region today along with gusty winds up to 60km/h at times. There was also periods of Lake Enhanced Showers crossing the area from time to time. These showers were caused by the cooler air moving over the warm waters of Lake Huron and stretched all the way to the Golden Horseshoe. You can see by the surface map from earlier today that the isobars are fairly tight across the region which is why the winds were quite strong today.

Taking a look at the temperatrures across the region today...

Toronto		Hamilton
19°	15°	16°	13°
London		St. Catharines
16°	13°	18°	14°
Extremes Across Ontario Yesterday 21°C 6°C Point Petre Big Trout Lake

Gusty conditions should continue on Thursday with some isolated showers once again, however they will be more widespread. Winds should diminish by the afternoon hours and sunshine return. Sunshine is expected into the weekend, but temperatrures won't be that warm. Normal values for this time of year are 22°C... that will be the warmest we will likely see, probably Saturday, during the next 10 days.

In International Weather News....

Tropical Storm Igor has formed off the African Coast and is moving westwards in the open Atlantic. Igor is forecast to become a Hurricane by the weekend, but is no threat to land any time soon.

Here is today's look a the tropics...

Summer returns, but only for a day!!

It's like Mother Nature flicked a switch and Summer returned. A large area of low pressure to the north of the region was responsible for the warm southerly flow of air that boosted temperatures to well above normal values across the Golden Horseshoe and for all of Southern Ontario for that matter. Several area saw temperatures above the 30°C mark today. Winds were also an issue as they gusted upwards of 70km/h at times during the afternoon hours.

Damage in the Sarnia region due to
strong winds on Sept 7th.

That was enough to cause a tree to fall on a van in the Sarnia area today along with other minor damage to older trees that may have already been weakend from the winds that whipped across the region last Saturday. Winds were generally in the 40 to 50km/h range during the afternoon across most of the area, however some higher gusts were reported in all areas.

As the cold front raced eastwards during the afternoon some thunderstorm activity fired up ahead of it. Severe thunderstorm watches and warnings were issued for potions of Southern Ontario, but the GTA was spared. Frequent lightning and strong winds were the main things being reported by these storms as they moved through. There seemed to be a break in the line of storms over the Golden Horseshoe as not a drop of rain was observed from Hamilton to Toronto.

 Taking a look at some of the temperatures around the region for today....

Toronto		Hamilton
30°	16°	29°	17°
London		St. Catharines
29°	17°	31°	20°
Extremes Across Ontario Today         32°C           1°C Windsor Nagagami

The warm temperatures will be short lived as a cold front approaching from the west will erase the humidity and the heat and replace it with much cooler and drier air. The atmosphere will remain a bit unstable on Wednesday however as the cooler air rushes across the warm waters of lake Huron and Georgian Bay. This will create some "Lake Effect" showers downwind of the lakes and will likely stretch far inland as well. Some of these scattered showers will reach the Golden Horseshoe area during the afternoon. Temperatures will only make it into the mid teens on Wednesday, but it will feel much cooler with the winds and overcast conditions during the afternoon hours. 

Temperatures in the longer range are expected to be close to or slightly below the normals for this time of year. No large temperatures swings are apparent on the computer models for the next 10 days at least.

Looking at some international news...

The tropics are fairly quite (relatively speaking) since we are in the peak of Hurricane season. Here is a look at the topical systems currently in play. Tropical Storm Hermine came on shore along the Texas coast with torrential rains being the main threat causing some flooding in the areas. Max winds were around 100km/h as Hermine made landfall. The remants of Tropical Storm Gaston continue to move westwards and have the potential for re-generation as it enters the very warm waters of the Caribbean.

Flooding in parts of Australia is threatening 300 properties in Shepperton and residents are preparing for the worst. The state premier warns that the floods are not likely to ease over the next 7 days.

Ariel shot of the flooding in Shepperton, Australia

Labour Day - The Unofficial End of the Summer Season

Well it's Labour Day already. I say already, because it just seems like a few weeks ago it was the Victoria Day weekend kicking off the start of Summer. Now, Summer is drawing to a close. Temperatures have been kind of cool this long weekend as well as an upper level low has kept cloud cover up and temperatures down. Also no thanks to a sharp cold front that passed through the areas Friday night.
Some scattered showers are continuing across Southern Ontario today with temperatures hovering around the 20° mark for many centres.

Warmer air will begin to move into the regions for Tuesday as the Jet stream lifts above the region. Humidity will also return with values into the mid 30's for the afternoon hours. I wouldn't be surprised if some shower or thunderstorm activity pops up across Southern Ontario. There is a cold fron that is poised to cross the region Tuesday night and depending on the time of passage, we may see some good storm activity. Environment Canada says there is the chance that some storms may reach severe limits with damaging wind gusts and torrential downpours.

Here is a look at Yesterday's reported conditions and extremes across Ontario...

Toronto		Hamilton
20°	10°	19°	8°
London		St. Catharines
20°	10°	21°	10°
Extremes Across Ontario Yesterday 21°C 0°C St. Catharines Upsala

Taking a look at the tropics for today....

What a difference a day makes; Hurricane Earl makes landfall in Nova Scotia

What a difference a day makes. A cold front moved through the regions last night and has taken us from Summer to Fall in a matter of 12 hours. A strong pressure gradient behind the cold front is causing strong gusty winds up to 70km/h at times across the regions. The cool winds blowing across the warm waters of lake Huron are also causing some Lake Effect Showers to form inland and are stretching all the way to the Golden Horseshoe region.

Temperatures today are only hovering around the low to mid teens across the area, however with the strong winds, it's feeling quite a bit chillier.

The strong winds should subside a bit overnight, but continue to be gusty into Sunday as well. Lake Effect showers should continue during the overnight and into the morning on Sunday before winds begin to diminish and subsequently end the showers across Southern Ontario.

Hurricane Earl came ashore near Lunenberg, Nova Scotia this morning at around 1030am local time. Earl was a minimal category 1 hurricane, but was soon downgraded to tropical storm. Extensive damage has been reported around the Halifax area with several trees downed. Winds have gusted upwards of 120km/h across the region and will continue to be gusty today as Earl makes it's trek northeastwards into the Northumberland Staight and eventually into the Gulf of St. Lawrence.

..Cooler temps moving in; Windy Saturday; Hurricane Earl Weakens

After 3 consecutive days of heat and humidity across Southern Ontario, things are about to change. A cold front is ready to sweep away the heat and erase the humidity as it crosses the region today. Temperatures today will be in the mid 20's, feeling into the 30's, but tomorrow will only reach the mid to high teens with strong winds gusting to 60km/h at times.
Ahead of the front, showers and some embedded thunderstorms have developped. Gusty winds are also associated with these storms along with heavy rains. The cooler air will make it's way into the region later this evening and Im sure will be a welcome relief for many. It will be time to turn off the Air Conditioners and open the windows.

As mentioned above, Saturday will be noticeably cooler as northwesterly winds bring in much cooler air. Winds will be gusting upwards of 60km/h at times on the back side of the low pressure area responsible for the cooler weather. There is also the chance of some lake induced showers or thunderstorms. The same process that creates lake effect snows will be in motion tomorrow as cooler air races across the very warm waters of lake Huron and Georgian Bay. This is also a good set up for some waterspouts to form, so boaters need to be on the lookout for that as well. Waterspouts, although much weaker than tornadoes can still be very detructive to boats.

Hurricane Earl continues on it's northeastward trek towards Nova Scotia. Now a Category 1 storm, although significantly weaker, Earl will still pack a punch to the northeast. Check out this awesome satellight image take this afternoon. The low pressure system crossing the Great Lakes right next to Hurricane Earl over the Atlantic.

Above Normal Continues; Cooler for the Weekend; Earl to strike Nova Scotia

Heat and Humidity Continue....

Above normal conditions continue across Southern Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe today. A southerly flow ahead of a slow moving cold front will help to keep the temperatures into the high 20's to near the 30 degree mark for all centres across the region. Humidity will also make it feel into the high 30's.

A HUMIDEX ADVISORY remains in effect for the area as humidex values will be near 40 for the 4th day in a row. Scenes like this were common place across Lake Ontario and up through cottage country as people were trying to beat the heat.

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop along and ahead of the cold front as it interacts with the warm soupy airmass. Behind the front, much cooler air will filter into the regions. There is the chance that some of the thunderstorms that do develp will reach severe limits, but the main threat is strong gusty winds. The timing of the front will also play a big part in the amount of storm activity we recieve. It's expected to arrive overnight and early morning, when daytime heating is at the minimum.



Hurricane Earl aiming for Nova Scotia

The main weather story is Hurricane Earl. Currently a Category 4 Hurricane, the path of Earl is expected to take it right over Nova Scotia. Earl is expected to weaken before it hit's, however it still could be a Category 2 storm. Residents are preparing for the worst as memories of Hurricane Juan still linger in many peoples minds.
There still remains some time that Earl could strengthen to a Category 5 hurricane before entering cooler waters. It will be going through an eyewall recplacement cycle today and the new eyewall will be forming as it crosses the warm Gulf Stream.

Yesterday's Reported High and Low Temperatures
September 1st 2010

Toronto           33°  /  21°
Hamilton         31°  /  21°
London           30°  /  20°
St. Catharines  31° / 23°
Windsor          33° / 22°
Muskoka         32° / 19°

Extremes Across Ontario
September 1st 2010

33°   -   Collingwood
7°    -   Big Trout Lake

Hot and Humid Continues; Much Cooler for the Long Weekend; Hurricane Earl

Hot and Humid Continues....

The calendar may say September, but people have been flocking to the beaches to escape the oppressive heat and humidity that has resided over the region for the past few days.Some of the hottest temperatures of the summer have occured over the last couple of days in Southern Ontario and around the Golden Horseshoe and will likely occur again today. Toronto reached a high of 34.5°C on Monday and that was the hottest temperature recorded in the city for the entire summer. Humidex values were also much higher, making it feel like 42.

Other cities such as Hamilton, St. Catharines and London were not far behind with temperatures in the low 30's with humidex values of 40 or more as well.

Humidex Advisories have been in effect from Environment Canada since Monday and will remain in effect for today.

A huge area of High Pressure is responsible for the hot and humid airmass that is over Southern Ontario. Just look at the size of the area of high on the surface map, extending from the Gulf of Mexico right up into the province of Quebec.

Southwesterly flow is pumping extra moisture into the region as well keeping dewpoints high and humidex values into the high 30's and low 40's.  These are the types of highs we usually see in mid-summer that give us the hottest temperatures and extended periods of hazy sunshine.

Much Cooler for the Long Weekend...

A cold front approaching from the west will move through the regions on Thursday and this will help to clear the air so to speak. Much cooler temperatures behind the front will move in for Friday and the weekend. In fact, Saturday appears to be the coolest day with daytime high's only in the mid teens giving a real sense that Fall is just around the corner. Current forecasts suggest high teens will last into Labour Day before a warming trends takes hold for next week.


Hurricane Earl

Hurricane Earl, a Category 4 Hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of 217km/h is affecting the islands in the Carribean. Earl is expected to make a northerly turn and move up the eastern seaboard and has the possibility of impacting Nova Scotia sometime Friday or Saturday. Current model guidance suggests the path will take it right over the province and may make landfall as a Category 1 Hurricane.  Right behind Earl is Tropical Storm Fiona. Barley a Tropical Storm at 60km/h sustained winds, Fiona is expected to take a similar path of Earl, but is not expected to be nearly as strong.

Yesterday's Observed High and Low Temperatures:

Toronto              33°  /  23° 
Hamilton            31°  /  19°
St.Catharines    33°  /  20°
London               31°  /  18°
Windsor             33°  /  24°
Muskoka            30°  /  16°