Monday, September 27, 2010

Wet and Dreary; Sunshine returns midweek; FROST possible this weekend

Dreary and wet across the Hamilton region today as a storm system slowly moves up the eastern seaboard of the USA. There is plenty of tropical moisture with this. We will likely see 20-30mm of rain from this event across the region, however the majority of the rainfall will occur over eastern Ontario where rainfall warnings are currently in effect.
Easterly winds will be brisk gusting to 40 at times today and that will certainly put a bite in the air, so jackets are a must today.

The majority of the rain will fall across the regions Monday night and into Tuesday. There could be some embedded thunderstorms and this would increase the rainfall totals on a very local scale.

Environment Canada has issued this special weather statemend regarding the rainfall across Southern Ontario.....

Significant soaking rainfall on the way...

A large and juicy low pressure system laden with tropical moisture
Is moving north towards the lower Great Lakes from the Southeastern
United States. This disturbance will bring a large shield of rain
across all of southern and Eastern Ontario tonight and Tuesday as
The low pressure system moves through.

Current trends continue to suggest that the heaviest rainfall will
occur over Eastern Ontario where rainfall warnings are in effect.

However across the rest of the forecast district a general rainfall
of 15 to 30 millimetres is likely tonight and Tuesday.  Locally
higher amounts of 30 to 50 mm are possible in a few locales that
receive an isolated thunderstorm or heavier rain band or two.

Environment Canada is closely monitoring this situation. Rainfall
warnings may be expanded into parts of Southern Ontario as needed.

Surface Map from Monday Afternoon
 Sunshine should return for Wednesday and Thursday with a nice reprive to the upper teens or even 20° by Thrusday. This will be short lived as another cool shot will dive southwards and bring some of the coolest weather so far this season for the first weekend of October. There is the possibility of seeing some Frost this weekend, especially for areas away form the lower lakes.

Taking a look at the tropics....


In other weather news....

It's that time of year when Snow becomes more widespread, but generally its confined to the northern portions of the country in the Yukon, NWT and Nunavut. Whitehorse recieved it's first snowfall of the season just the other day getting upwards of 13cm of the whitestuff. Showen hear is the Whitehorse Airport with snow covering the tarmack. There has already been some snow in Alberta and Saskatchewan which is not all that uncommon for September, but it won't be long before snow flies across the entire country.

Saturday, September 25, 2010

New Record High's Sept 24

Weather summary for all of Southern Ontario and the National Capital
Region issued by Environment Canada Toronto at
8:30 AM EDT Saturday 25 September 2010.

..Records tumble as early autumn heat graces Southern Ontario..
-------------------------------------------------------------
==weather event discussion==

An intense low pressure area which gave heavy rainfall to Northern
Ontario provided a reminder of our summer heat in Southern Ontario.
Numerous high temperature records fell across the region on Friday
with the mercury soaring into the high twenties and low thirties
accompanied by howling, hot winds. It's a one-day wonder, however,
As a cold front swept the heat into the record books last night,
making way for a rather cool weekend.

Below is a list of the temperature records broken on Friday. Since
the last update, Buttonville's maximum temperature was adjusted
upwards, and London and Vineland were added with tied values.

-------------------------------------------------------------
Date
Location                    new record      old record

Toronto city                30.1            28.3 (1920)
Toronto Pearson airport     30.8            27.2 (1970)
Markham (Buttonville)       31.0            27.2 (2004,2007)
Hamilton                    29.8            29.4 (1970)
Delhi                       30.0            29.4 (1970)
Barrie                      28.2            28.0 (2007)
Orillia                     30.0            27.8 (1916)
Peterborough                28.7            27.8 (1970)
Muskoka                     28.6            26.7 (1970)
Bancroft                    27.7            26.3 (2004)
Ottawa                      28.5            26.9 (2004,2007)
London                      28.3 (tied)     28.3 (1970)
Vineland                    30.6 (tied)     30.6 (1970)

Friday, September 24, 2010

Temps pushing 30°C today; Very Windy

Amazing temperatures for the 24th of September. Pushing 30° for the region today, but winds will be really strong gusting to 80km/h at times in the afternoon. This is all thanks to a strong Colorado Low storm that is moving through northern Ontario. This has put Soutnern Ontario into the warm sector allowing the heat to move up from the Southern States. Humidex values will also be into the mid 30's today, but it won't feel like it with the winds.

Environment Canada has issued a special weather statement for today:

..Very windy and unseasonably warm today over Southern Ontario..
A strong southwesterly flow of very warm air flooding into Southern
Ontario will push out all the showers and cloud over the extreme
eastern regions near noon with temperatures rising to the mid to
upper twenties. Meanwhile, further to the west where winds will be
stronger, record breaking temperatures are expected. Day time highs
will get up into the upper twenties and touch the 30 degree mark in
some regions. Strong southwesterly winds of 50 gusting to 80 km/h
are expected over much of the western sections this afternoon.
Environment Canada will continue to monitor the developing wind
conditions closely and could issue strong wind warnings if necessary.
Unfortunately, the warm temperatures are not going to last.
A vigorous cold front over Michigan at this time will sweep in from
the west and move through Southern Ontario later this afternoon and
evening. Day time highs on Saturday are expected to drop back down
to the mid teens which are near or below the seasonal normals.

Temeratures over the next while are beginning to drop. Cool for the coming weekend with only mid teens expected, but then the really cool air begins to move into the region by the end of next week. Current indications are for only the low double digits by the beginning of October.

The Tropics are still active with Lisa and newly formed Matthew. The season is far from being over and the tropical strom train is expected to continue to be very active.


Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Special Weather Statement re:Rainfall

..Southern Ontario to get a good dousing on Thursday..




A developing disturbance over Iowa is targeting the Great Lakes
Basin with a fairly significant rainfall. The first of the rain will
arrive in regions neighbouring Lake Huron into the southwest in the
overnight hours. As the low pressure centre tracks acros
Southwestern Ontario during the day Thursday..The rain will envelop
most areas from west to east across the lower Great Lakes. A few
embedded thunderstorms will also enhance rainfall amounts in a few
Localities...Mainly in the southwest. Total rainfall amounts of 15
To 25 millimetres are expected with local higher amounts closer to
40 in locales which receive prolonged heavier rain bands or a
thunderstorm or two.

Rainfall warning criteria is 50 millimetres within 24 hours.
Warnings are not anticipated at this time, but Environment Canada
will monitor the development of the disturbance should heavier
rainfall threaten the region.

Seasonal today, rain move in for Tomorrow

Today's Forecast for Hamilton:


Clouds mixing with sunshine. Light winds.
High 19°C

Skies were supposed to be sunny today, however a good cloud cover is preventing any sunshine from getting through. The day started out sunny, but clouded over late in the morning. It was a very cool early morning with 6.8°C reported in Hamilton. Winds are fairly light today, but things will soon change.
Clouds will likely move out of the region later in the afternoon and early in the evening. 19°C can generally be expected across the area.


Here's a look at reported temperatures across the region yesterday:

 Toronto............. 21°   10­°
Hamilton........... 20°    8°
London............. 19°    9°
St. Catharines... 20°    10°
Kitchener.........  19°    7°
Muskoka..........  17°    6°    


An area of rain approaching from the west will move into the regions overnight and into tormorrow morning. There is the chance of some thunderstorm activity as well, especially around the western end of lake Ontario and eastern shores of Lake Erie. Cool easterly winds will also be gusting up to 50km/h at times tomorrow making for a really dreary and wet day.

Warmer air is expected to move in for the weekend. When I say warmer, im just talking about low 20's, which is normal for this time of year.

Long range trends are seeing generally seasonal conditions through early next week, then very cool temperatrures begin to move into the area by next weekend. That is very far off and things could change, however that is what the computer models are currently seeing.

Tropics remain very active. Hurricane IGOR was just 1mph shy of Cat 5 status at 155mph sustained winds last night. It has since decreased to 135mph, but these fluctuations are normal with strong hurricanes as they undergo eyewall replacements cycles.
Hurricane Julia underwent some rapid intensification last night and is now a Category 4 Hurricane with winds sustatined at 135mph. This makes it the second time in history since record keeping began that there were 2 Category 4 storms simutaneously in the Atlantic Basin. Julia also set a record being the furtherst east Category 4 storm.

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Cooler air returns today with rain moving in for Thursday.

Today's Forecast for Hamilton:

Variable skies with winds 20km/h at times with gusts to 40.
19°C
A cold front passed through the regions yesterday and that has dropped the temperature to slightly below seasonal values for today. Variable skies can be expected through the afternoon along with winds gusting to 40km/h at times. Today, expect a high of 19°C. Skies will be generally clear in the overnight period and winds will diminish and this will allow temperatures to drop to the mid single digits across the region. Likely to be the coldest night so far this season for centres away from the shores of the Great Lakes.


Sunshine will continue on Wednesday, however clouds will begin to increase through the afternoon hours as a system approaches bringing some much needed rain to the region on Thursday. Temperatures will be very cool on Thursday likely not surpassing the 15°C mark along with brisk easterly winds.

It's shaping up to be a cool weekend ahead as well with temperatrures into the mid-teens. There is the possibility of temperatures increasing to above normal values by the middle of next week as Southern Ontario will sit on the northern edge of some heat moving up from the United States. However any slight movement to the south and this would keep the cool temperatures over the region.

Taking a look at yesterdays temperatures across the region.

Toronto.......24     13
Hamilton.....24     11
London.......23     10
St. Kitts.......23     13
Kitchener....22       9
Muskoka.....21       9

Lots going on in the Tropics today with 3 named storms. Newly formed Tropical Strom Karl, Hurricane Igor and Hurricane Julia.

Sunday, September 12, 2010

A nice "fall like" day for Southern Ontario

Well the day started out kind of gloomy with grey skies and some drizzle in the morning, but the sun soon started to make an appearance across the Golden Horseshoe by the afternoon. Winds were light today and the temperatures managed to make it to the 20°C mark by the afternoon. All in all.. it turned out to be a gorgeous "Fall Like" day around the area.

A cold front will slice through the regions on Monday and will likely bring some shower or even a few thudnerstorms to the Golden Horseshoe area. Temperatures behind the front are considerably cooler and this will set the stage for a prolonged period of below normal temperatures for the region. Mid teens will be the rule from Tuesday onwards into next week.

Here's a look at the temperatures across the region for Sunday:
TorontoHamilton
22°14°20°12°
LondonSt. Catharines
21°13°21°13°

Extremes Across Ontario

23°C

6°C
WindsorThunder Bay

Hurricane IGOR at Cat 4 status
Lots of activity going on in the Tropics with Hurricane IGOR a strong Category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds of 140mph. IGOR is far out to sea and doesn't pose a threat to any land in the near future. IGOR is expected to remain a strong Category 4 storm and may even reach Cat 5 status for some time over the next few days.
Right on it's tail is Tropical Depression 12, which is expected to become Tropical Storm Julia very shortly. Very warm water ahead of the depression will aid in it's rapid development.
There is another area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean that needs to be watched as very warm water and light wind shear will all aid for development this week. We are now at the peak of Hurricane Season with 2 1/2 months still to go. The way things are going, I think we will see quite a few more storms in the coming weeks.
IGOR is the fourth named Hurricane of this years season and is set to be the first Cat 5 storm.



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